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Sell tatapower below 86 with stop loss above 88.65 for target 83.50-81. Nifty trading levels :- support 4805 / 4780 Resistance 4855/4880
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Market Outlook [ 24.04.2012 ] |
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The market is likely to start on a subdued note on weak Asian equities. Trading of S&P CNX Nifty futures on the Singapore stock exchange indicates a fall of 12 points at the opening bell. Data showing selling by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) recently may weigh on investor sentiment. India`s largest power equipment maker Bhel unveils its Q4 results today, 23 May 2012. Tata Power may edge lower after the company after market hours on Tuesday reported net loss in Q4 March 2012. Reliance Industries (RIL) and partners BP and Canada`s Niko Resources have reportedly abandoned the D4 oil and gas block off east coast, underlining the production problems in the region. The D4 block, situated in the Mahanadi basin, lies north of RIL`s main D6 block in the neighbouring Krishna-Godavari basin, where gas output has declined sharply over the last year, marring growth outlook for the Indian energy major and forcing the government to hold back approvals. Calgary, Alberta-based Niko has a 15% interest in the D4 block, while BP holds 30%. RIL owns the rest and is also the operator of the block. Private sector power generation major Tata Power Company reported consolidated net loss of Rs 1087.68 crore in the year ended March 2012 (FY 2012) as compared to net profit of Rs 2059.60 crore in the year ended March 2011 (FY 2011). The reason for the reverse turnaround in FY 2012 was because the company made provisions for Mundra project impairment and deferred stripping costs. The company made provision of Rs 1800 crore for impairment for Mundra project and Rs 659.44 crore on account of deferred stripping costs. Based on assessment of fuel, forex and other operating costs on cash flows for the Mundra project, a total provision of Rs 1800 crore was made in FY 2012 as impairment loss for the year, Tata Power said. Given the volatility of coal prices and forex, the assumptions will be monitored on a periodic basis and necessary adjustments will be made if external conditions relating to the assumptions indicate that such adjustments are appropriate, Tata Power said. The company`s consolidated revenue jumped 34% to Rs 25868.87 crore in FY 2012 over FY 2011. The company said the surge in revenue reflected strong operational performance and higher coal price realizations. The company reported consolidated net loss of Rs 628.75 crore in Q4 March 2012 as compared to net profit of Rs 625.02 crore in Q4 March 2011. The reason for reverse turnaround in Q4 March 2012 was because of additional provision made for impairment of Rs 815 crore for Mundra project, Tata Power said. The impairment is mainly on account of forex losses incurred due to rupee depreciation, Tata Power said. Consolidated revenue jumped 44% to Rs 7169.85 crore in the Q4 March 2012 over Q4 March 2011. Mr. Anil Sardana, Managing Director, Tata Power, said, During the financial year, all our businesses have registered robust performance. The company crossed a historic milestone of 5000 megawatt (MW) of power generation capacity, reaffirming its position as the largest integrated power company in India. During this period, we commissioned several large projects -- Unit 1 of India`s first UMPP in Mundra, Unit 1 of 1050 MW Maithon Power Project and 25 MW solar plant at Mithapur. Tata Power`s global footprint has been further augmented through its JV with Exxaro to explore electricity generation opportunities across South Africa, Botswana and Namibia. We are also pleased to share that Cennergi has been announced as preferred bidder for two wind projects of 234 MW -- Amakhala 139 MW and Tsitsikamma 95 MW projects. We look forward to early resolution on imported coal compensation issue for long-term sustenance of power sector. The annual consolidated results reflect non-cash impairment provision for Mundra project and deferred stripping costs. We believe it is prudent to make such provisions. The finance ministry on Tuesday introduced the Microfinance Institutions Development and Regulation Bill in the Lok Sabha. The Bill proposes to make the RBI the regulator for all micro-finance institutions (MFIs) on issues like interest rates and transaction costs. All MFIs have been proposed to be registered with RBI. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said Tuesday, 22 May 2012, said the government needs to make tough decisions on spending and tax generation to boost foreign and local investment. I recognize that we face pressures on our balance of payments and that the fiscal situation requires careful management, Mr. Singh said in a speech marking the third anniversary of the ruling United Progressive Alliance coalition, led by the Congress party.Some people have questioned the sustainability of our growth process, Mr. Singh said. I am confident we will prove the skeptics wrong. Key benchmark indices snapped three-day winning streak on Tuesday, 22 May 2012 as macroeconomic worries and rupee`s slide to a record low against the dollar hurt investor sentiment adversely. The BSE Sensex lost 156.85 points or 0.97% to settle at 16,026.41, its lowest closing level since 9 January 2012. Macroeconomic worries weighed on the bourses on Tuesday after media reports suggested that the government will dole out Rs 38500 crore in additional cash subsidy to public sector oil companies as part of compensation for selling diesel, domestic LPG and kerosene below cost last financial year. The reports of additional subsidy payment raised concerns it will further strain the government`s weak finances and cast doubts over the government`s resolve to trim subsidies in future. The subsidies -- usually on food, fuels and fertilizers -- were part of the reason the government`s fiscal deficit widened to 5.9% of GDP last fiscal year, exceeding its 4.6% target and raising concerns about the country`s fiscal health. In April, Standard & Poor`s changed India`s long-term rating outlook to negative and warned a downgrade could follow if conditions didn`t improve. In Union Budget 2012-13 unveiled in parliament in mid-March 2012, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee had said that the government intends to bring down subsidy to 1.75% of GDP in the next 3 years. The government has proposed to keep the subsidy bill under 2% of GDP in 2012-13, he had said at that time. Meanwhile, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in a reporteleased on Tuesday, 22 May 2012, suggested that it would be prudent for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to wait for clear signs that inflation is falling back to more comfortable levels before reducing interest rates. The OECD report said the government needs to narrow its fiscal deficit to support monetary policy and ensure a sustained drop in inflationary pressures. The government`s privatization program is way behind target and is now being held back by softening business confidence and falling equity prices, the report said. The report said India`s economic growth is likely to remain subdued given the weakening global economy. The Indian rupee continued to find all-time lows on Tuesday, extending its recent steep slide against the dollar. India is caught in a vicious cycle of rising fuel import costs because of a weak rupee, which swells its fiscal and current account deficits. A weak rupee makes imports costlier. The Reserve Bank of India on Monday announced more steps to curb currency speculation after the rupee hit a record low below 55 per dollar. In a notification late on Monday, the central bank sealed the window for foreign-exchange dealers to play the futures and forwards markets off each other by imposing restrictions limiting the volatility of the rupee. In a White Paper on Black Money released by the government on Monday, 21 May 2012, the government said that money shifted out of India over the years through illicit outflows might have returned to India through foreign direct investment (FDI), participatory notes (PNs) and by way of misuse of global depository receipts (GDRs). The While Paper says that as per data released by the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP), from April 2000 to March 2011, FDI from Mauritius is 41.8% of the entire FDI received by India. The two topmost sources of the cumulative inflows from April 2000 to March 2011 are Mauritius 41.8% and Singapore 9.17%. Mauritius and Singapore with their small economies cannot be the sources of such huge investments and it is apparent that the investments are routed through these jurisdictions for avoidance of taxes and/or for concealing the identities from the revenue authorities of the ultimate investors, many of whom could actually be Indian residents, who have invested in their own companies, though a process known as round tripping, the While Paper says. The ultimate beneficiaries/investors through the PN route can be Indians and the source of their investment may be black money generated by them, the While Paper says. In the recent past, instances have come to the notice of Sebi that the GDRs issued by some Indian companies, which are listed on the Luxembourg Stock Exchange, are used for manipulation of markets, the White Paper says. On going through a 21 September 2011 order passed by Sebi, it can be seen that surprisingly mysterious `initial investors` were found ready to invest in GDRs issued by companies which were either start-ups or having shares with very little trading and after two-three years sold the GDRs at deep discounts taking heavy losses. These instances suggest this as another possible route for reinvestment of black money, the White Paper says. The government also said that the Vodafone tax case provides an instance of the misuse of corporate structure for avoiding the payment of taxes. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold shares worth a net Rs 283.34 crore on Tuesday, 22 May 2012, as per provisional figures. Moody`s Investors Service on 14 May 2012 downgraded to Baa3 from Baa2 the foreign currency insurance financial strength rating of the Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) -- India`s biggest domestic institutional investor. The rating outlook is now stable. This revision takes place in the context of an ongoing global review affecting financial institutions whose ratings are higher than the rating of the government where they are domiciled, Moody`s said. The consumer price inflation accelerated in April to 10.36% from 9.47% in March. The annual consumer price index (CPI) was launched in February and measures retail prices in major food groups, fuel, clothing, housing and education across rural and urban India. The RBI`s monetary policy has to act even if inflation is driven by food prices, D Subbarao, the central bank governor, said on Wednesday, 16 May 2012. Inflation accelerated in April as prices of most commodities rose. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) rose a faster-than-expected 7.23% in April from a year earlier, mainly driven by higher food prices and manufactured items, data released by the government on Monday, 14 May 2012, showed. However, there was a slowdown in price rises in the manufacturing sector -- a proxy for measuring price pressures excluding volatile food and fuel prices. The Reserve Bank of India next reviews monetary policy on 18 June 2012. The central bank will have May inflation and April industrial output data to study before then. The Q4 March 2012 earnings season is drawing towards a close. Investor focus is on the guidance provided by the management for the year ending March 2013 (FY 2013) to gauge the earnings outlook. ITC, Reliance Infrastructure and BPCL unveil FY 2012 results on Friday, 25 May 2012. Coal India announces FY 2012 consolidated results on 28 May 2012. Tata Motors, ONGC, Steel Authority of India and Power Grid Corporation of India announce FY 2012 results on 29 May 2012. Sun Pharmaceuticals Industries announces Q4 results on 29 May 2012. GAIL (India) announces Q4 results on 30 May 2012. Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) and Jaiprakash Associates unveil FY 2012 results on 30 May 2012. DLF announces Q4 results on the same day. Asian stocks declined on Wednesday ahead of a meeting of European leaders, with renewed fears that Greece would leave the euro bloc dampening appetite for riskier assets. Key benchmark indices in Singapore, Japan, China, Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong and Indonesia were down by 0.22% to 1.47%. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan today kept its key interest rate and asset-purchase program unchanged, noting that the year-on-year change in consumer prices was likely to remain around 0% for the time being. The BoJ kept the benchmark interest rate between zero and 0.1%. US stocks closed mostly flat on Tuesday as investors preferred to stay on the sidelines amid political turmoil in euro zone. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 1.67 points, or 0.01%, to 12,502.81. The Standard & Poor`s 500 index was up just 0.64 of a point, or 0.05%, to 1,316.63. The Nasdaq Composite index declined 8.13 points, or 0.29%, to 2,839.08. The G8 world leaders on Saturday, 19 May 2012, affirmed they want Greece to remain in the euro zone. At a summit of the Group of Eight major economies at the US, G8 leaders failed to reach an agreement on how to calm the escalating economic crisis in Europe, though the meeting`s final statement did affirm that leaders wanted Greece to remain in the euro zone. Also in the joint statement, leaders said that they would take steps to boost their economies. Greek voters return to the polls on 17 June 2012 after the splintered results of a May 6 parliamentary election left no party able to put together a government. Strong support for anti-austerity parties has stirred fears that Greece won`t meet pledges it made in return for its second bailout, potentially leading to its exit from the shared-currency project. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation & Development (OECD) on Tuesday forecast that global growth would fall to 3.4% this year from 3.6% in 2011, before accelerating to 4.2% in 2013. Growth across the Paris-based organisation`s 34 members, considered the richest in the world, would drop this year to 1.6% from 1.8% in 2011 and then reach 2.2% in 2013, roughly in line with previous estimates.
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